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Wake up the second spring of methanol futures

wallpapers News 2020-08-07

Since the second half of last year, the gorgeous turn of methanol futures market has attracted the attention of the market, making methanol futures once become the "Star" leading the chemical (market) products.

Behind the magnificent turn of methanol futures reflects the mutual supplement of futures cash, but the market is still worried.

The reporter of futures daily learned that in addition to traders, the enthusiasm of upstream downstream enterprises in the methanol industry chain has not yet been mobilized, the "hot cold imbalance" of methanol futures participants is also troubling the market.

The enthusiasm of the upstream downstream enterprises in the industrial chain is in urgent need of mobilization.

The "uneven heat cold" participation group, as the first dangerous chemicals futures variety in China, has shown a wave b change in activity its price since the listing of methanol futures.

At the beginning of listing, methanol futures was once more active, but after September 2012, it entered the "off-season".

The turnover of main contracts declined rapidly, the daily turnover gradually dropped from the highest of 120000 to more than 10000.

In November 2013, the turnover fell to the bottom.

However, in December last year, the volume of methanol futures increased explosively, the turnover increased to 5.

147 million.

At present, the main contracts of methanol futures basically maintain a one-day turnover level of 60000-70000.

Peng Yaoxing, vice president of Nanjing Hanks Petrochemical Co., Ltd., was deeply touched by the fluctuation of methanol futures activity.

"Methanol futures are" hot first then cold "after listing, there are signs of recovery in recent two months.

This is a rare good phenomenon.

At least, it has restored market confidence.

" In Peng Yaoxing's view, methanol futures activity changes so much, which has a great relationship with its strong futures cash linkage.

The data shows that the correlation coefficient between the closing price of main contract of methanol futures the spot price in East China is more than 0.

8, the correlation coefficient with the spot price of Shong North China is also above 0.7. Xu Tao, a senior methanol analyst at Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange, told the futures daily that there were more corporate customers participating in methanol futures.

In 2013, 30.

7% of the legal persons held positions in methanol futures.

This part of customers generally look at the spot to do futures, in accordance with the previous electronic disk method to do futures, the spot rose to buy futures, spot fell on the sale of futures, so the futures market spot trend of high correlation.

In addition, the proportion of hot money participating in methanol futures is not high, which is one of the important reasons for the strong linkage between futures cash.

"Methanol is a dangerous chemical, toxic, flammable volatile.

Compared with most other commodity futures, the relevant business qualification will raise the threshold of capital participation, which is more beneficial to industrial customers.

Most of the participants settling in this category are traders or production enterprises, hot money individual investors have lost some Xu Tao said.

"Among the participating groups of methanol futures, traders in the industry are still the main force.

In recent two months, some institutions have joined in, causing a" false fire.

" Peng Yaoxing said that the scale of methanol futures contract is large, the prospect of arbitrage fund income is very poor.

This also leads to this market is either unilateral market, short-term hot, or flat light, trading volume is not high.

At present, the financial attribute of methanol futures has not been fully reflected.

Sun Desheng, a senior in the methanol industry, has the same feeling.

"At present, most of the participants in methanol futures are traders, especially import traders, who can hedge through internal external markets at the same time.

" He believes that the market is now dominated by imports, the participation of producers is far from enough.

The ideal market condition is that there are equal amount of hedging speculative funds arbitrage participants at the same time.

In the investigation, many production enterprises have not been moved.

The reporter found that since the methanol futures market was listed for three years, the recognition of methanol futures by production enterprises has been greatly improved, some enterprises with "water test" earlier have been able to flexibly use the "two legs" of futures spot.

But most entities are still waiting.

"For methanol enterprises, participating in futures is definitely for hedging, arbitrage or selling through delivery.

" Hu Guangping, a cash person, believes that after the listing of methanol futures, the futures price passively follows the spot trend.

As there is no arbitrage or arbitrage space, the enthusiasm of methanol production enterprises to participate is not high.

"It's not that manufacturers don't want to get involved, it's that they don't know where to go now.

" The person in charge of a trading enterprise in East China has caused the distress of people in the circle: the current price of futures plate no longer reflects the port price, but moves closer to the mainl price.

It is understood that methanol futures delivery warehouses are mainly distributed in East China South China, aiming to reflect the price of sales areas.

However, due to the obvious segmentation of domestic methanol market, the spot prices of different regions are quite different.

Although the long-term trend of the price is the same as a whole, but in the short term, there will be differences or even deviations due to weather, raw materials, arbitrage other factors.

As a result, the futures price based on the spot price in East China is difficult to reflect the price fluctuation of various regions.

"The benchmark price in the futures market is generally the lowest deliverable price, that is to say, no matter which price in the spot market is a weathervane, the futures market reflects the spot price closest to the lowest deliverable price.

" Deng Shiheng, a mid term analyst in Shanghai, said that the term price of methanol is the closest to the spot price in Hebei Shong.

"Methanol futures prices gradually move closer to the mainl price, in the final analysis, or because the methanol futures premium setting is unreasonable.

" Zhong Meiyan, an analyst at Everbright futures, said that because of the premium design, each region has a spot price difference.

According to the design of futures premium, only those regions with profit will have warehouse receipt registration.

"Take the 1401 contract as an example, the warehouse receipt registration is concentrated in Hebei Dingzhou Tianlu new energy Co., Ltd., the warehouse discount is 155 yuan / ton, which indicates that the delivery cost in Hebei is relatively low.

However, due to the high spot price in East China, the benchmark delivery place, it is not profitable for enterprises to participate in hedging in the futures market.

Therefore, it is difficult to obtain methanol warehouse receipts in East China the number of futures participants is very small.

" In addition, for the real enterprise, the leader's idea has a certain influence on the enterprise's participation in futures.

"As far as I know, the leaders of state-owned enterprises are generally not willing to participate in futures.

Only those private enterprises like us, whose owners are more open-minded, will participate, the amount of participation is not very large.

" New energy Phoenix (Tengzhou) energy Co., Ltd. marketing director Zang Qingzhi said.

Similarly, the relevant personnel of another methanol production enterprise also.


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TRUNNANO (aka. Luoyang Tongrun Nano Technology Co. Ltd.) is a trusted global chemical material supplier & manufacturer with over 12 years' experience in providing super high-quality chemicals and Nanomaterials. The nitride powder produced by our company has high purity, fine particle size and impurity content. Please contact us if necessary.