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Seasonal factors and cost driven methanol is now close to the short trend

wallpapers News 2020-09-24

Since the beginning of November, the price trend of domestic chemicals has been outsting, especially for plastics (11275,5.00,0.04%) methanol (3322,33.00,1.00%). On the one h, we believe that the relatively high degree of supply of raw materials raw materials is prone to occur.

On the other h, methanol is affected by seasonal factors, cost driven unit maintenance.

However, due to the overcapacity of methanol the slowdown of potential dem, the current rise is only a periodic rebound does not have the basis for market switching.

Therefore, the short-term short-term closing may be terminated at any time because the price rebound stimulates the recovery of output.

Seasonal factors are exerting force.

First of all, in winter, the overhaul of methanol enterprises increased, resulting in tight spot market supply.

Baichuan information data shows that in November, the operating rate of most methanol plants in major regions of the country declined.

Among them, only East China North China increased by 5.

79 6.

13 percentage points respectively to 64.

63% 70.1%. Secondly, due to the lack of natural gas supply in winter, the production capacity of methanol from natural gas is limited.

Due to the limitation of natural gas insufficient start-up of gas enterprises, as well as the remote location of Northwest gas head enterprises the long-term outsourcing period, coal-fired heating was mainly used in winter before.

But this year, in order to reduce the air pollution caused by coal combustion, China has taken the lead in implementing the "coal to fuel" policy in the central heating areas in the north, replaced coal with more energy-saving clean natural gas as the main heating energy.

Although this policy is the inevitable way for China's environmental protection reform, it makes the tension between supply dem of natural gas more serious.

According to the principle of "protecting civil use suppressing industry", many enterprises in North China have stopped production because of stopping or restricting the supply of natural gas.

Thirdly, the transportation of methanol may be relatively difficult due to weather factors.

Domestic methanol production units are relatively scattered, mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Henan, Shanxi other inl regions or western regions with inconvenient transportation Hainan Province, while methanol consumption centers are relatively concentrated in East China South China.

The distribution of methanol production consumption in different regions determines that methanol domestic trade generally flows from west to East, the transportation is mainly l long-distance transportation.

In winter, coal transportation in Northwest Northeast China squeezes methanol train capacity.

Cost drivers.

From the production process of methanol, there are coal to methanol, natural gas to methanol coke oven gas to methanol.

Recently, the prices of these three raw materials have risen synchronously.

Therefore, the cost transmission factor also causes the methanol price to rise.

In November, the domestic anthracite market price showed a steady upward trend.

The baci average price index of anthracite in China rose to 828 points, 21 points higher than 807 points at the end of October.

in November, the comprehensive average price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Bohai Rim region rose to 576 yuan / ton from 537 yuan / ton on November 1.

Foreign prices soared.

Since October, many foreign devices have been overhauled.

Some goods from Europe, America Saudi Arabia did not stop at the port, but chose to send them to Southeast Asia for arbitrage, resulting in low port inventory tight spot market.

The international methanol price also rose sharply, which also pushed up the domestic methanol price.

In November, both methanol CFR in Chinese ports rose sharply, with a larger increase compared with international prices.

At present, CFR Southeast Asia (middle price) is 595 USD / T, up 15.

5% from last month.

while CFR China's middle price is 516 USD / T, up 12.

7% month on month.

Spot premium is high.

Compared with the current price, the spot premium is high.

On December 3, the closing price of 1405 main contract of methanol was 3099 yuan / ton, while the middle price of methanol spot market in East China reached 3595 yuan / ton.

The prices of Shanxi, Shong Inner Mongolia were 3165 yuan / ton, 3290 yuan / ton 2840 yuan / ton respectively on December 2, but the prices in Jiangsu, Fujian Shanghai generally exceeded 3500 yuan / ton.

As of December 2, the methanol warehouse receipt data is still zero, indicating that the recent month contract is hard to resist.

The potential negative effects should not be ignored.

First, overcapacity.

In November 2013, the total production capacity of China reached 55.

4674 million tons, while the actual output of methanol from January to October was 22.

9686 million tons, the capacity utilization rate was only 41%.

As of October, the total apparent consumption of methanol in China was 26.

87367 million tons.

Therefore, in such a large capacity background, once the price rebounds, the output capacity will certainly restart, which brings pressure to the future market.

At present, the coal to methanol ratio is more than 500-800 yuan.

The cost of methanol production from natural gas is slightly higher.

Due to the increase of natural gas price, the cost of methanol per ton has increased by more than 200 yuan / ton, but at present, the methanol price is at a high point, the natural gas unit is slightly profitable.

Secondly, the profits of downstream manufacturers are weak they are in conflict with high price goods.

With the coming of winter, the dem for formaldehyde in real estate will drop.

The main downstream dem - the dem of the plate market is weak.

After the increase of formaldehyde, the purchasing tightening phenomenon appears, which leads to the decrease of formaldehyde market.


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TRUNNANO (aka. Luoyang Tongrun Nano Technology Co. Ltd.) is a trusted global chemical material supplier & manufacturer with over 12 years' experience in providing super high-quality chemicals and Nanomaterials. The nitride powder produced by our company has high purity, fine particle size and impurity content. Please contact us if necessary.