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Methanol price rise is limited or transferred to interval oscillation

wallpapers News 2020-08-07
After more than a month of continuous decline, the main contract 1405 of methanol futures was finally recognized by many parties below 2900 yuan / T, the futures price began to stabilize rebound. However, the author believes that methanol futures this round of rise space is very limited, it is expected that the probability of turning into interval oscillation before the Spring Festival is large.

continues to rebound, facing multiple short interest constraints.

from the current long short situation of methanol market, positive factors can only provide certain support, but it is difficult to be strong enough to promote a sustained price rebound. Therefore, this round of rebound is only a valuation correction after the technical over fall of futures price. However, as the futures price goes up, it may encounter many negative factors.

first of all, domestic funds are still tight, market interest rates usher in the 'Spring Festival model'. After two consecutive weeks of empty windows, the central bank has not yet carried out any operation in the open market on the 14th. In the next two weeks or more, the financial tension will not tend to ease, but will also face more negative factors challenges. These include the capital provision of commercial banks before the Spring Festival, the accelerated pace of new bond issuance, the freezing of IPO on capital the turning in of Financial deposits. It can be seen that in the inter-bank pledge type repo market, the mainstream capital interest rate has increased for the first time since the new year's day. Among them, the one month pledge repo rate, a typical cross spring festival term fund variety, has continued to rise by 11bp to 6.75%, implying that with the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, a new round of pre holiday fund prices may be coming.

are the second. At present, the operating rate of domestic methanol enterprises is still at a high level, the pressure on the supply side is not reduced. It is understood that as of the 12th, the total operating rate of 77 large medium-sized methanol enterprises in China was 59.79% (weighted by the weight of each region), which continued to increase by 0.78% over the previous week. Among them, the methanol operating rate in East China North China increased significantly, with cycle to cycle ratio increasing by 1.19% 7.18% respectively. Although since the end of last year, the growth rate of domestic methanol production has slowed down, but it still maintains a rapid growth momentum year on year. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, China's methanol output in November 2013 was 2.25204 million tons, an increase of 5.38% year-on-year. The cumulative output in the first 11 months reached 26.128 million tons, an increase of 7.44% compared with the same period in 2012. Although the adverse effects of the continuous increase of supply pressure are not obvious in the peak season of downstream dem, they may highlight the negative effects in the current consumption off-season stage.

once again, according to the usual practice, this time in the past year has reached the ideal period for downstream stock preparation. However, due to the shortage of funds the huge fluctuation of methanol market, formaldehyde production enterprises traders have turned to wait--see attitude in order to avoid risks. Most manufacturers are still mainly to digest their own inventory, the intention of stock preparation is not high, the whole methanol spot market transaction is relatively light. At the same time, the domestic formaldehyde methylal production units will usher in a peak of parking, the dem side will be further depressed. It is understood that the operating rate of domestic formaldehyde enterprises is only about 34%, while that of dimethyl ether enterprises is only about 30%. With the Spring Festival approaching, downstream manufacturers will only have more more parking maintenance holidays ahead of schedule. Therefore, it is expected that the methanol dem market will be difficult to improve before the Spring Festival.

finally, the expected aggravation of short-term methanol supply dem imbalance will aggravate the bearish sentiment in the market, the arrival of the spring transportation peak in China, the railway highway transportation capacity shortage will also lead to the transportation restriction of methanol other dangerous chemicals. In order to avoid the delay of methanol sales due to the transportation problems in the later stage prevent the enterprise profits from shrinking, the manufacturers have a strong willingness to actively reduce the price of methanol, which will keep the methanol price going higher.

methanol internal external disk hang upside down seriously, port inventory remains low.

although there are many adverse factors in the methanol market, the momentum of methanol price innovation has been weakened. On the contrary, the long end of 1405 contract under the first line of 2900 yuan / ton is more sufficient. At present, the CFR quotation of methanol in China is about 520 US dollars / ton, plus the tax rate, the equivalent import cost is about 3830 yuan / ton, while the spot price of methanol in East China ports is 3100 yuan / ton, that of South China ports is about 3350 yuan / ton. The upside down range of internal external prices is large, which will promote domestic enterprises to reduce imports increase re exports exports, thus causing the low inventory of ports to continue to give methanol period Price has a boost effect. From the perspective of

, in the past week, the top 20 members of methanol futures have repeatedly appeared in terms of net long positions net long positions, which indicates that the market has a big long short divergence has not yet formed a one-sided situation. Although the main contract price continued to rebound, but the net short position has been increasing, suggesting that the short selling force encountered in this round of rebound is very obvious. It is expected that the price rise of methanol will be limited, the probability of turning into interval oscillation will be large in the future.


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TRUNNANO (aka. Luoyang Tongrun Nano Technology Co. Ltd.) is a trusted global chemical material supplier & manufacturer with over 12 years' experience in providing super high-quality chemicals and Nanomaterials. The nitride powder produced by our company has high purity, fine particle size and impurity content. Please contact us if necessary.