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Methanol market is expected in 2014

wallpapers News 2020-08-08

Summary: 1.

The methanol futures market is in a favorable situation.

In 2013, the methanol futures price fluctuated greatly, fell to the low point in the middle of the year, ushered in the historical market at the end of the year.

Methanol futures has been reborn at the age of two, 2013 is bound to be a milestone year to change methanol futures. 2. Short supply of methanol in stock.

The supply dem pattern of natural gas in the world is changing quietly, the cost of methanol from natural gas is increasing, while the domestic coal to methanol enjoys the advantage of low cost for a long time.

The international methanol price continued to run at a high level, domestic natural gas loading was limited, port inventory was historically low.

Many factors prompted the domestic spot price in 2013 to reach a new high in recent years. 3. The methanol market in 2014 is worth looking forward to.

The factors driving up methanol have not been improved, the short-term shortage of methanol has not changed.

It is expected that methanol prices will rise first then restrain next year, but the overall operating range will be significantly improved.

In the first part, we review the operation of methanol price in 2013, which can be divided into two main stages The first stage: (early 2013 to early July 2013) at the beginning of 2013, due to the market consensus that the new government will launch stimulus policies after taking office, methanol futures rose sharply before the Spring Festival, with the main 1305 contract reaching 3015 yuan / ton before the festival.

After the festival, with the introduction of five national real estate regulation policies, the market expectation turned into a sharp downward trend, methanol futures rapidly broke down.

With uncertain macro expectations serious overcapacity in the industry, methanol futures began to seek bottom after the holiday.

During this period, the main contract 1309 fell from 3149 yuan / ton a year ago to 2573 yuan / ton in early July, a decrease of nearly 19%.

With the continuous bottoming of methanol futures, positions trading volume continued to be in a low state.

The second stage: (from July 2013 to the present) since the second half of the year, methanol supply in the Middle East market is tight, the supply in Southeast Asia is tight, the price continues to rise.

In addition, due to the limited use of natural gas in the United States, production has been reduced, the price of methanol in the United States is also rising.

The international methanol arbitrage space has been completely opened, the soaring of international methanol has driven the domestic methanol spot to continue to rise.

Since October, the national development Reform Commission has warned three times in a row of "gas shortage" this winter, aggravating the situation of domestic supply shortage.

Due to the limited import volume of methanol the large increase in export volume, the port inventory remained low, while the supply of goods from the mainl continued to flow to the port, so that the enterprises in the main production areas had no inventory pressure.

Due to the high spot price, low port social inventory, the methanol futures price began to rise in July, accelerated to rise in November, reached the peak in early December.

Then, under the combined effect of downstream resistance port centralized arrival expectation, methanol futures staged a high platform diving.

Throughout the second half of the year, methanol futures prices can be described as ups downs, the ups downs are jaw dropping.

However, with the ups downs of methanol futures prices, we are pleased to see that the volume position of methanol futures have also increased significantly.

The maximum daily turnover of methanol futures reached 63.

6 hs, the maximum single day position exceeded 80000 hs, all of which reached the highest level since the listing of methanol futures.

Figure 1-1: the change trend of active price (unit: yuan / ton) position, turnover (unit: h) of main contract of Zhengzhou Institute of commerce data source: wind, medium term research institute Part II Fundamentals 1.

Upstream: gas to methanol is limited, coal to methanol will enjoy the feast. 1. The supply dem pattern of natural gas has changed, the cost of gas to methanol has increased Although oil is still the world's largest energy, with the progress of technology, natural gas will surpass coal to become the second largest energy in the world.

Looking at the world, the dem for natural gas still has a huge growth space.

As one of the main raw materials for methanol production, natural gas accounts for nearly 50% of global methanol production capacity nearly 20% of China's total production capacity.

Therefore, the supply dem price trend of natural gas will largely affect the international methanol price.

We know that the Middle East is the main methanol export region in the world, this region also accounts for nearly 80% of China's methanol import.

Therefore, we can underst the impact of natural gas on China's methanol price by analyzing the supply dem price trend of natural gas in the Middle East China.

Let me introduce the changes in the supply dem patterns of natural gas in these two regions.

Middle East - gas is no longer cheap.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which consists of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman Qatar, may have to try to solve the shortage of natural gas feedstock in the petrochemical industry in the next two years, according to world refining business DIGEST WEEKLY.

GCC countries will soon start using imported natural gas feedstocks, according to a report by Booz & company.

The shortage of raw materials is partly due to the rapid expansion planned in the near future.

It is estimated that in the next five years, the proportion of GCC countries' petrochemical production in the global petrochemical market will increase from 11% to 17%.

Industry insiders believe that to avoid the shortage of raw materials should be solved as soon as possible.

These countries need to invest in new projects to increase natural gas production, while steadily increasing local gas prices to stimulate enterprise enthusiasm.

The rise of natural gas price will increase the price of methanol from natural gas.

China's mainl has hitherto unknown pressures on supply dem of natural gas.

Lian Weiliang, deputy director of the national development Reform Commission, predicted at the coordination meeting of natural gas supply in winter in 2013 that the national dem for natural gas will be at least 192 billion cubic meters, but the supply of gas will be up to 170 billion cubic meters.

This means that the gap between supply dem of natural gas in China this year is 22 billion cubic meters, equivalent to two years' gas consumption in Beijing.

After the central government's policy of controlling air pollution came into being, cities all over the country issued plans for "gasification" of cities, "coal to gas" projects were launched one after another.

The urgency of environmental governance has led to an explosive growth in dem for natural gas.

Only in the off-season of traditional consumption from April to June, natural gas sales increased by about 10% to 15% in previous years, but this year it has reached 25%, the highest in history.

According to the analysis of industry insiders, the contradiction between domestic natural gas supply dem is "unprecedented", the gas consumption this winter is facing a test.

Under the background of "gas shortage", most of the domestic methanol plants from natural gas are stopped.

"The decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on several major issues of comprehensively deepening the reform" proposed to promote water, oil natural gasThe price of natural gas other resource products should be reformed, the prices of competitive links should be liberalized.

Although the reform does not mean price increase, considering that natural gas is still in the stage of "supply creates dem", once the terminal price control is loosened, the price rate will rise, which will further increase the cost of gas to methanol, which is already not profitable, the competitiveness of gas to methanol will be further weakened. 2. Coal price will remain low, coal to methanol will continue to enjoy cost advantage for a long time.

Thanks to the rapid development of China's economy in the past decade, the coal industry continues to boom.

However, in recent years, the slowdown of dem growth has put pressure on the continuous expansion of production capacity.

In addition, with the sharp increase of imports, there has been an obvious phenomenon of overcapacity in China's coal market.

In 2012, the supply / consumption reached 109.

5%, the coal price finally failed to withst the pressure began to decline in a weak way in the middle of 2012.

Since then, the coal industry has entered a period of phased overcapacity.

Affected by the expected production of Shanxi integrated mine the low-cost supply of Shaanxi Inner Mongolia, it is expected that the phased overcapacity in the coal industry will not be alleviated in the short term.

Affected by the decline of dem growth, the coal industry is difficult to alleviate the periodic overcapacity in the short term.

Judging that the coal price is difficult to continue to rise in a long time, domestic coal to methanol enterprises will continue to enjoy low raw material costs, similar to foreign gas to methanol enterprises after 2009.

Figure 2-1: coal supply / consumption data source: in the medium term Research Institute, due to the great changes in the supply dem pattern of natural gas at home abroad, it is estimated that in the future, the production of gas to methanol plants in the world will be limited the production cost of gas to methanol will increase.

Due to the low price of raw materials, domestic coal to methanol will enjoy the feast brought by the rising international methanol price.

The price of domestic methanol spot market fluctuates greatly, the trend of domestic methanol spot market is basically consistent with that of futures market.

It also experienced a shock bottom in the first half of the year, then recovered from the bottom.

The difference is that the spot market rose earlier than the futures market, while the futures market fell earlier than the spot market.

Figure 2-2: trend chart of methanol price in major domestic regions (unit: yuan / ton) data source: wind, medium-term Research Institute.

Taking the East China market as an example, the spot price in the first half of the year gradually fell to the lowest point of 2560 yuan / ton at the end of June from 2925 yuan / ton, a decrease of nearly 13%.

In the second half of the year, the spot price rose gradually, reaching the peak of 4155 yuan / ton in early December, with the maximum increase of more than 60%.

In the last month of 2013, both the spot market the futures market experienced a high platform dive.

In less than two weeks, the spot price quickly fell from the high point of 4155 yuan / ton to the lowest of 3495 yuan / ton, the domestic methanol price dropped to below 3400 yuan / ton.

As one of the main production areas in Hebei Province, the spot price of methanol dropped from 2590 yuan / ton a year ago to 2265 yuan / ton at the end of June, rose to 3550 yuan / ton at the beginning of December, dropped to 2925 yuan / ton recently.

Its rise fall with the port area basically consistent. 2. Since the financial crisis, the international methanol price has entered the bull market pattern, especially in the developed countries, which has driven the upward trend of the international methanol price.

Taking the United States as an example, thanks to the rapid growth of methanol dem caused by the comprehensive application of energy products the expansion of chemical derivatives production, the FOB price of methanol in the Gulf of the United States surged from $146 / T in early 2009 to $540 / T in November 2013.

Since the second half of this year, large-scale overhaul of methanol plants in the Middle East Southeast Asia has led to further shortage of international methanol supply, the import price of methanol in Asia has increased rapidly.

As of December 23, the price of CFR Southeast Asia, which had the largest increase, had risen to $600 / T from $441 / T in early October, up nearly 36%.

Driven by this, CFR China's main port quotation also rose by nearly 29% to US $535 / T from US $415 / T in early October.

With the rapid rise in Asia, the trend of methanol price difference among the three places is obvious.

FOB US port quotation CFR China main port quotation is basically flat, CFR Southeast Asia quotation CFR China main port quotation is exped to 65 US dollars.

With the recent rapid rise of Southeast Asia price, CFR Southeast Asia quotation exceeds FOB us US port quotation for the first time since 2012.

The profits of port tax declaration methanol re export trade still exist, import methanol into the domestic market decreased, some domestic enterprises are still exporting methanol to Southeast Asia.

Figure 2-3: methanol price trend chart of three international places (unit: USD / ton) figure 2-4: trend chart of methanol price difference among three international places (unit: USD / ton) data source: wind, medium term research institute figure 2-5: methanol import analysis (unit: 10000 tons,%) figure 2-6: methanol export analysis (unit: 10000 tons,%) data source: wind, medium term Research Institute From the data from January to November, we can see that the re export trade methanol export increased due to the continuous upside down of methanol prices at home abroad the existence of international methanol arbitrage space.

Since the beginning of this year, the domestic methanol import volume has maintained a low growth rate for most of the time, even showed negative growth in the second half of the year.

on the contrary, the domestic methanol export volume soared, with methanol export of nearly 180000 tons in June, reaching the peak in recent years.

As of November, the cumulative methanol import in this year was 4.

54 million tons, a slight increase of 1.

6% compared with the same period last year, while the cumulative methanol export was nearly 680000 tons, nearly 17 times higher than the same period last year.

The decline of import enthusiasm the upsurge of export enthusiasm provide support for domestic methanol price, especially for port. 3. Port inventory rebounded slightly, but still at a historic low According to the statistics of Baichuan information, domestic methanol port inventory rose slightly in December compared with the previous period.

As of December 12, the port inventory in East China rose slightly from the historical low of 168000 tons to 207000 tons, the inventory of South China port rose from low 41000 tons to 54000 tons, Ningbo Port inventory remained at 132000 tons.

If the apparent consumption of methanol in 2012 is more than 31 million tons, the inventory of the three major ports is only equivalent to the national consumption dem of 5 days.

Although the port spot price is still high, but because the import price is also high, the phenomenon of internal external inversion will still existMerchants are more cautious in importing cargo, the supply in the port area is reduced.

As the phenomenon of internal external upside down will continue for a period of time in the future, we expect that the port inventory will still maintain a low operating pattern.

Figure 2-7: domestic methanol port inventory statistics (unit: 10000 tons) data source: Baichuan, medium term research institute 4.

Methanol output growth rate drops.

In 2013, China is expected to increase methanol production capacity by 9.

9 MT, an increase of nearly 18% compared with last year.

However, as of November, China has produced more than 26 million tons of methanol this year, with a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. Figure 2-8: domestic methanol output trend chart (unit: 10000 tons,%) data source: wind, medium term Research Institute The distribution of methanol in China is as follows: there are 282 methanol enterprises in China, with a total production capacity of 52 MT / A in 2012, including 229 coal to methanol enterprises, most of which are concentrated in Shong, Henan, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi other provinces, with the total capacity accounting for 67% of the national total capacity.

there are 32 natural gas to methanol enterprises, mainly concentrated in southwest Northwest China Inner Mongolia, Hainan, Shaanxi Chongqing have large production capacity), the total capacity accounts for 23.

9% of the total capacity of the country.

there are 21 coke oven gas to methanol enterprises, the total capacity accounts for 9.

1% of the total capacity of the country.

Figure 2-9: trend analysis of domestic methanol production (unit: USD / ton) data source: wind, medium term research institute.

From the above figure, we can see that the production growth rate of regions with concentrated natural gas to methanol plants, such as Chongqing Hainan, has continued to decline in recent years, even showing negative growth.

The main increment of methanol in China comes from Shong, Inner Mongolia other regions which are dominated by coal to methanol.

Due to the change of natural gas supply dem pattern, the domestic natural gas to methanol plants gradually lose their competitiveness.

In the future, the domestic methanol market will be dominated by coal to methanol.

There may be more slack in non coal to methanol production capacity, which will affect our judgment on the domestic methanol overcapacity pattern. 3. Downstream 1.

The traditional downstream industry continued to be depressed as of November 2013, The output of formaldehyde was 13.

783 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 8%, the average operating rate of formaldehyde in 2013 was about 55%.

the output of dimethyl ether was 4.

6832 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. the average operating rate of dimethyl ether in 2013 was about 53%.

the output of acetic acid was 3.

89 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 1%, the average operating rate of acetic acid in 2013 was about 60%.

Affected by the rising cost of raw materials, the spot prices of formaldehyde acetic acid rose passively in the second half of the year.

National real estate regulation continued, furniture industry dem downturn, formaldehyde acetic acid production decreased.

DME remained stable as a whole, but the productivity utilization rate was still not high.

The traditional downstream industry of methanol is generally depressed, the high price raw materials are generally resisted. 2. With the rapid development of emerging downstream industries, but the cost bearing capacity is also limited.

2013 is a key year for methanol to olefins in emerging downstream industries.

In this year, two methanol to olefin (MTO) plants purchased from Ningbo Heyuan Nanjing Wison were put into operation in this year.

The scale of Ningbo Heyuan plant was 1.

8 million tons, nearly 150000 tons of methanol raw materials were purchased every month for full capacity production.

At present, there are at least 5 purchased methanol to olefin projects announced.

After all the above projects are put into operation, the actual additional methanol consumption will be 15 million tons / year.

In the long run, the purchased methanol to olefin projects will occupy more market shares in the future, the overcapacity situation in the methanol industry is expected to be further resolved.

Although we expect the emerging downstream industry to achieve great development, we also need to see the limitations of the industry.

According to our profit model of MTO, 3500 RMB / T is the highest methanol price that MTO can bear under the price of 1500 USD / T ethylene propylene.

However, due to the lack of substitutability for other downstream methanol products, price transmission is still possible in the long run.

However, the final product price of MTO is limited by the oil price, the methanol price higher than 3500 yuan / T will have a significant negative impact on the operating rate of MTO.

Since December this year, due to the continuous high spot price of methanol, the highest spot price of port reached more than 4100 yuan / ton, unable to bear the load of high price raw materials, Ningbo Heyuan methanol to olefin plant has reduced production load for the first time since trial production this year, began to sell stocks.

This shows that despite the rapid development of emerging downstream, its cost bearing capacity is also limited.

In the third part, it is expected that the international methanol price will continue to run at a high level, the domestic natural gas loading capacity is limited, the port inventory is at a historical low level.

Many factors have driven the domestic spot price in 2013 to a new high in recent years.

At the end of the year the beginning of the year, due to the collective resistance of the downstream, the spot price of methanol period fell rapidly.

However, we believe that the factors driving up methanol have not been improved, the short-term shortage of methanol has not changed.

It is expected that the spot price of methanol will remain at a high level in the first quarter of next year.

In the second quarter, with the resumption of production of foreign overhaul equipment domestic natural gas installation, the methanol price is expected to decline under pressure.

However, we expect that with the increasing cost of natural gas loading at home abroad, the spot price range of methanol will move up in the future.

In 2014, the spot price of methanol port area is expected to operate in the range of 3000-4000 yuan / ton.

In the futures part, when the methanol futures price is above 3000, the market activity is obviously improved.

In 2014, the trend of methanol futures is worth looking forward to.

Hou Chao, China International Futures.


TRUNNANO (aka. Luoyang Tongrun Nano Technology Co. Ltd.) is a trusted global chemical material supplier & manufacturer with over 12 years' experience in providing super high-quality chemicals and Nanomaterials. The nitride powder produced by our company has high purity, fine particle size and impurity content. Please contact us if necessary. (aka. Luoyang Tongrun Nano Technology Co. Ltd.) is a trusted global chemical material supplier & manufacturer with over 12 years' experience in providing super high-quality chemicals Nanomaterials. The nitride powder produced by our company has high purity, fine particle size impurity content. Please contact us if necessary.
TRUNNANO (aka. Luoyang Tongrun Nano Technology Co. Ltd.) is a trusted global chemical material supplier & manufacturer with over 12 years' experience in providing super high-quality chemicals and Nanomaterials. The nitride powder produced by our company has high purity, fine particle size and impurity content. Please contact us if necessary.