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Methanol futures rise sharply and fall sharply, market heat rises

wallpapers News 2020-07-21

In recent years, new varieties of futures market have been listed frequently, attracting a large number of capital inflow.

At the same time, funds in the futures market have become more dispersed.

In the past, with the transfer of speculation funds, the intraday fluctuation of some new star varieties decreased significantly, the trading volume decreased significantly, such as glass futures.

But some traditional star varieties are not affected, such as copper, rubber thread.

In such an environment, methanol futures suddenly emerged, trading volume soared 10 times, market volatility significantly increased.

Methanol futures started from 2800 yuan in November, rose to 3400 yuan in early December, rose 600 yuan within a month.

after reaching the peak, the market went down sharply, falling 300 yuan in a short week, the risk was significantly increased.

What is the reason for the methanol futures market in a month a half from a sharp rise to a sharp fall, the market changes so fast that many investors can not react? From the perspective of supply dem, the external disk caused a strong rise in methanol prices.

Since November, the overhaul of several major units in foreign countries, coupled with the high price of methanol raw material natural gas, have made the foreign methanol operating rate low, the external price has risen strongly.

The price gap between China Southeast Asia has widened significantly, there is room for re export arbitrage in trade, which reduces the import of methanol, finally leads to the state of tight domestic supply.

From the dem side, the rise of methanol spot price is mainly related to the rising dem of methanol to olefins (MTO) from coastal areas.

In the first half of this year, Ningbo Heyuan started the 1.

8 million ton MTO plant, in the second half of this year, Wison's 900000 ton MTO plant was started.

Driven by the production profit, the olefin unit greatly increased the start-up load, the initial stock preparation later operating rate increased, resulting in the dem for methanol purchased from abroad.

In terms of short-term dem factors, under the background that China's chemical dem continues to maintain strong, the prices of ethylene, n-butanol, methanol other products continue to rise, the import export data also continue to improve.

Although methanol futures fell sharply recently, there was no panic in the market.

At present, inventory prices in East China are still not on the low side.

From the spot trade situation, "buy up not buy down" is a trade habit.

Downstream operating rate declined, downstream resistance to high prices of raw materials, the willingness to receive goods greatly declined.

For example, the methanol to olefin unit loses the cost advantage reduces the production load when the methanol price is high.

The overhaul of foreign large-scale equipment is coming to an end, which guarantees the import volume in the future market.

In the future, these factors will affect the spot price of methanol in a trend way, which is unfavorable to the future market of methanol.

However, under the background of low inventory, it is difficult for the spot price of methanol to fall back to last year's low price, so the decline space of methanol may not be as large as expected.

From discount to premium, in the case of a sharp drop in the spot price, the futures in recent months have increased by 150 yuan / ton compared with the spot price of the lowest delivery warehouse.

If the warehouse manufacturer has goods, it may realize spot arbitrage in the risk-free period.

At present, the delivery is approaching, methanol is a logistics troublesome variety, the long receiving willingness is not particularly strong, so the possibility of futures moving closer to the spot is greatly increased.

We believe that methanol production high profit is unlikely to maintain, spot will continue to fall.

The recent round of sharp rise in methanol price has made domestic methanol production profit high, the production enterprises try to increase production.

The growth of future output is a big probability event, which will slow down the problem of tight methanol supply in the later stage.


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TRUNNANO (aka. Luoyang Tongrun Nano Technology Co. Ltd.) is a trusted global chemical material supplier & manufacturer with over 12 years' experience in providing super high-quality chemicals and Nanomaterials. The nitride powder produced by our company has high purity, fine particle size and impurity content. Please contact us if necessary.