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Methanol became the first bull in futures market in 2013

wallpapers News 2020-09-02
Like a burning torch, methanol, which has been silent for a long time, has illuminated the whole autumn winter in 2013, becoming the first cattle variety in 2013. In the second half of this year, methanol futures became the star variety of China futures market with an amazing increase.

review the rise of methanol in 2013, which is a feast of spot traders, speculators small retail investors, mixed with international domestic industry change factors. The rhythm of "sudden rise fall, big losses big wins" is exciting frightening. In the drastic changes in the market, some traders seize the opportunity to make a lot of money in both spot futures markets; some novices who have just entered the futures market earn a bucket of gold with their teachers.

is a fire in winter.

reviews the domestic methanol operation in 2013, which can be summarized by core words such as "suppress first then rise", "V-shaped reversal" "create a new high since listing." Baocheng futures analyst Chen Dong said in an interview with China Securities Journal. In the second half of this year, peripheral large-scale devices were overhauled in succession, the international supply was greatly reduced. Under the background of increasingly tight supply of goods, the domestic spot price of methanol gradually strengthened, the methanol futures price bottomed out in early July, rebounded strengthened.

on July 4, 2013, Lin Hai, a novice in futures investment, made his first payment in his life - a contract for methanol 1401. "The teacher with the plate said that he would buy more, but I followed him that day. As a result, I made nearly 100 points, this contract rose by 3.73% on the same day." After

in October, several major units at home abroad began to be overhauled. In addition, the high price of natural gas for methanol feedstock, the low operating rate of methanol production units at home abroad, the national development Reform Commission (NDRC) warned of "gas shortage" for three consecutive times this winter, which exacerbated the situation of domestic supply tension. The tight supply of

highlights that the spot methanol price is "almost one price a day". According to the reporter's statistics, taking East China as an example, the market price of methanol was about 2487 yuan / ton in July, increased by 22.31% to 3042 yuan / ton in October, further increased to 3532 yuan / ton in December, with a cumulative increase of nearly 44% in the second half of the year.

methanol futures prices began to keep up with the spot rhythm in hindsight, quickly repaired the current price difference in the period, began to deduce a strong upward market. Take 1401 contract as an example, from July 4 to September 26, its settlement price rose from 2612 yuan / ton to 2936 yuan / ton, an accumulative increase of 12.4%; after a slight correction after the national day, its settlement price soared from 2782 yuan / ton to 3684 yuan / ton in just over 40 days from October 28 to December 12, with a cumulative increase of 32.42%. On December 6, 9 10, the 1401 contract was up down for three consecutive trading days, with a cumulative increase of more than 10%. In view of the strong performance of methanol futures, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange even had to issue a risk warning letter.

on the whole, the supply dem of methanol in the second half of this year is relatively balanced, the customer dem reflected by the production enterprises is similar to that in the second half of last year. Although the ex factory price of methanol has increased for a period of time with the market price, the sharp rise lasts for about 20 days, now the price has dropped again. " Haitong futures Chongqing business department manager Qiu Xiaofeng said.

funds are chasing after cattle. With the continuous influx of OTC funds,

have a sharp increase in speculation of methanol long-term contracts with relatively weak influence of fundamental factors. On December 12, after a 1.73% increase in methanol 1401 contract, the settlement price of methanol 1401 contract fell from 3684 yuan / ton on December 12 to 3268 yuan / ton on 20 days, down 11.3% in six trading days. Meanwhile, in less than two weeks, the spot price of methanol dropped by about 600 yuan / ton. Qiu Xiaofeng of

believes that "the rise of methanol before is actually closely related to funds, because methanol varieties were not active before, the futures price fluctuated between 2750-2950 yuan / ton for three months, millions of yuan or tens of millions of yuan can pull up the whole market."

"methanol futures have little capital small market. They are small varieties that are easy to manipulate. They are easy to be controlled by some traders who are in stock, sensitive to price changes have capital advantages." Li Dongfeng, senior vice president of China International Futures Co., Ltd., also believes that part of the sharp rise fall of methanol is the result of capital operation.  

also revealed that, on the surface, there was no big market for methanol in the first half of this year, but in fact, some traders processors had a premonition. Some traders who are familiar with the industry futures market have won the "double prize" in spot futures this year. At the same time, some hot money sensitive to the market saw the opportunity of the variety carried it with them A huge amount of money fast in out, these factors exacerbated the methanol market volatility. Song Yanan, an analyst of

, believes that in a short period of time, the sharp drop of methanol from a new high is actually caused by excessive market speculation. However, the tight inventory in the spot market the widening interest rate gap between export domestic sales have become the "reasonable excuse" for businesses to take the opportunity to raise the market price, so the market has not been able to get sustained development.

make big profits make big losses. In this wave of methanol market, many retail investors like Linhai have obtained the price difference income of 100-200 yuan / ton. "Among the retail investors I know, some of them with high yield can reach 100%." According to Qiu Xiaofeng, one of his clients set up a position with the trend. He tried to buy more than one order seized four trading limits.

however, it is the traders who really catch the "big bull". "The yield on methanol futures this year is over 100%." According to a trader in East China, he bought the contract of methanol 1401 at the cost of about 2800 yuan / ton in early October, closed his position about 3300 yuan / ton in early December, making a profit of about 500 points.

"more than 90% of the investment in methanol futures are enterprise funds, so most of the big profits losses are traders." Qiu Xiaofeng told reporters that many big traders in the industry have specially assigned personnel to study how to realize futures hedging. Through the allocation of funds, how many hs will futures do how many hs can be purchased from spot
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TRUNNANO (aka. Luoyang Tongrun Nano Technology Co. Ltd.) is a trusted global chemical material supplier & manufacturer with over 12 years' experience in providing super high-quality chemicals and Nanomaterials. The nitride powder produced by our company has high purity, fine particle size and impurity content. Please contact us if necessary.