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In 2014, methanol market supply trend will be high first and then low

wallpapers News 2020-10-16

In 2013, methanol futures ushered in an amazing reversal.

Analysts believe that the trend of methanol futures price in 2013 is closely related to the overall tight supply dem relationship, the rise of spot price the increase of seasonal dem.

Looking forward to 2014, methanol supply may be relatively loose, but downstream dem is also gradually picking up.

It is expected that the trend of methanol in 2014 will be high first then low.

Everbright futures pointed out in its annual report that the biggest characteristic of methanol in 2013 was that the trend was very obvious.

In 2012, the spot price of methanol in various regions was mainly fluctuated in a wide range.

however, in 2013, it fell first then rose.

Especially since November, along with several favorable supports of fundamentals, such as low port inventory, increased re export trade volume, relatively tight domestic supply, the price has been rising all the way.

Due to the shortage of supply of goods, the price has increased in both amplitude speed than in the past two years.

Yinhe futures believes that the rise of methanol from July to September is mainly due to the reduction of market supply due to the shutdown maintenance of some domestic methanol plants, resulting in low social inventory rapid market growth.

After October, affected by the replenishment of some downstream enterprises, the shipment of manufacturers improved last week, the inventory pressure gradually eased, the market mentality gradually returned to peace.

The wave of market from the end of October to December is mainly due to the large pre-sale volume of manufacturers, most of which have no inventory.

in addition, the import source has been relatively small, which needs to be supplemented by domestic supply.

at the same time, some methanol to olefin manufacturers do not have their own methanol plants, so the procurement is more active extensive, thus promoting the overall market to continue to rise.

After entering the fourth quarter, although the domestic methanol spot market has turned into the off-season season season, under the background of frequent positive factors, the profits of manufacturers traders are unprecedented.

Baocheng futures believes that there are three reasons: first, since entering the second half of the year, the supply of methanol in the middle East market is tight, the supply in Southeast Asia is tight, the price continues to rise.

In addition, the use of natural gas in the United States has been limited due to the reduction of production.

The international methanol arbitrage space has been completely opened, the soaring international methanol has become the main factor driving domestic methanol spot to go higher.

Secondly, since October, the national development Reform Commission has warned three times in a row of "gas shortage" this winter, aggravating the situation of domestic supply tension.

Finally, due to the limited import volume of methanol the large increase in export volume, the port inventory remained low, while the supply of goods from the mainl continued to flow to the port, so that enterprises in the main production areas had no inventory pressure.

Looking forward to 2014, Everbright futures believes that there will be several bright spots for methanol to pay attention to: first, the maintenance of peripheral devices is still continuing.

With the continuous strengthening of peripheral prices, domestic spot prices will remain high in the short term.

Second, under the condition of limited imports, the domestic trade flow starts to dredge from north to south, so the methanol price will be further raised.

Therefore, the methanol price in 2014 should be high first then low, the price will run in the range of 4100-3100 yuan / ton.

Galaxy futures believes that driven by profits, a considerable part of methanol plants will be re started after January 2014, the technical problems of foreign units will be effectively solved, the sanctions against Iran will be gradually relaxed.

Therefore, the supply side may be relaxed next year, which will make methanol gradually fall from the high level.

However, with the gradual stabilization of domestic macro-economy, there will be a new batch of units in East China next year, so the downstream dem is gradually rising.

It is expected that the bottom area of methanol in 2014 will increase compared with previous years.

Baocheng futures also believes that with the production enterprises driven by profits, the production units will actively resume production, the operating rate will rise rapidly relieve the pressure of supply dem gap, forcing the methanol price to slow down the rise turn to high consolidation.

It is expected that the methanol trend in 2014 will show the posture of rising first then restraining, but the overall price center of gravity will shift upward.


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TRUNNANO (aka. Luoyang Tongrun Nano Technology Co. Ltd.) is a trusted global chemical material supplier & manufacturer with over 12 years' experience in providing super high-quality chemicals and Nanomaterials. The nitride powder produced by our company has high purity, fine particle size and impurity content. Please contact us if necessary.