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Emerging demand leads the rapid development of methanol industry

wallpapers News 2020-08-20
At present, the market tends to the consensus that the global economy as a whole is entering a relatively stable but slower growth period. It is expected that the possibility of short-term recovery of China's economy will still exist in 2014. However, in view of the policy of eliminating excess capacity in the manufacturing industry, the growth rate of fixed asset investment will decline, so the long-term economic downturn may still be the main theme of its operation. The macro environment of

is such that the energy chemical industry (market zone) industry can not be alone. From the perspective of the industry, methanol production capacity has not been reduced, but increased rapidly. Traditional dem shows a weak state, emerging dem continues to grow. Methanol market adjusts dynamically with the seasonal change of supply dem, the price operation shows distinct seasonal characteristics. Although sometimes in the same period of time, the growth rate of dem the growth rate of supply do not match, leading to the emergence of a more extreme market, but the comprehensive (market) profit of methanol industry has not increased rapidly, the industry development is still facing many problems. The methanol industry of

is developing forward in the contradiction of supply dem between the increase of production capacity output, the shrinking of traditional dem the growth of emerging dem, the possibility of extreme market situation still exists. Considering the production cost of methanol, it is still very important to use futures to carry out the long-term hedging. We predict that in 2014, methanol futures will still have an ideal price range for short hedging, the use of futures hedging has comparative advantages over other hedging methods, so manufacturers can still pay attention to hedging opportunities implement hedging plans.

1. The economic downward pressure is great, the recovery of major industries still needs macro support

in 2013, although the global central bank's "ultra loose monetary policy" has brought about the economic recovery of developed countries, the strongest performance is the United States, followed by Japan, finally the weak recovery of the euro area, but the long-term large amount of money can only stimulate the inappropriate prosperity of the virtual economy in the short term, can not fundamentally give long-term sustained economic growth momentum 。 We still believe that "innovation is the driving force of economic growth, but the short-term economic power is insufficient, it still needs monetary promotion." Sufficient liquidity will enlarge the financial leverage again, which is not conducive to the structural reform of the economy, resulting in the diminishing marginal utility of money driven economic growth.

are facing profound painful "structural" adjustment in the global economy in 2014 even for a long time in the future. Due to the constraints of overcapacity, high local debt, slowing down of money supply, China's economy is no exception facing more severe growth difficulties. The structural contradiction of China's economy is prominent. However, as the short-term loose monetary policy of maintaining growth may still be implemented in the first quarter of 2014, we expect that the possibility of short-term recovery of China's economy in 2014 still exists, but the possibility of long-term downward trend also exists to a large extent.

from the perspective of various measures taken by the new government to cope with the downward pressure of the economy in 2013, promoting specific reform in 2014 is still the main theme of policy measures. First of all, the dividend of the pilot expansion of the free trade zone can not be released in a large area in the short term, so we need to constantly improve the mechanism system construction exp the capacity in a timely manner. Secondly, the shantytowns transformation is another supplement to the real estate (market zone) economy, which needs to balance the livelihood construction economic development. Therefore, it can only play a temporary supporting role on the real estate, the pulling effect on the overall economy will not be obvious. Everything is going smoothly. Third, because of the short-term restrictions on household registration l ownership reform, l reform faces many problems to be solved.

2. There are seasonal differences in the tight balance of methanol supply dem in 2014.

in 2014 have a pre increased capacity of about 9 million tons, the credibility is tentatively set at 85%. The average operating rate is expected to remain unchanged at 66% of 2013. The total supply dem are expected to increase by 5.049 million tons 4.9 million tons respectively. Due to the seasonal difference between supply dem, there are also seasonal differences in the balance of supply dem.

  1。 In 2013, the uneven distribution of methanol production capacity in China has caused a large space distance between supply dem. In 2013, the pattern of main production in North China Northwest China, sales in East China import supply in southeast coastal areas are still maintained. The main production areas of

are 21% in Northwest China, 34% in North China, 17% in East China, 11% in Southwest China, 11% in Central China, 3% in South China 3% in Northeast China. Jiangsu 42%, Guangdong 29%, Zhejiang 21% Fujian 8% are still the main imports, the import volume of East China accounts for about 70%. As of December 25, there were 303 methanol enterprises in China with a production capacity of 56.543 million tons, the annual cumulative production capacity was 4.37 million tons. It is estimated that the national average operating rate is 66%, the estimated output is about 37.318 million tons, the import is about 5 million tons. Except for the gap between supply dem in November, the dem in other months is normal, the seasonal proportion of traditional dem is not obvious, the proportion of new dem is increasing. In 2014, the production capacity will be increased by 9 million tons, including 6.67 million tons in Northwest China 1.6 million tons in North China.

2。

in 2013, under the macro background of economic slowdown growth, the dem of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether acetic acid in the downstream of traditional methanol mainly changes seasonally, which is generally stable. According to the latest data of national methanol network, the traditional dem has increased decreased. From January to December,

produced 18.864 million tons of formaldehyde, an increase of 11.7% year-on-year, the consumption of methanol was about 8.589 million tons. The output of dimethyl ether was 4.042 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage point, the consumption of methanol was about 6.068 million tons. The output of acetic acid was 4.362 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9 percentage points, the consumption of methanol was about 2.392 million tons. The output of DMF was 791 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 34.8%, the consumption of methanol was about 872000 tons. The emerging dem of

includes methanol to olefins methanol gasoline. The situation of methanol gasoline is counted in other dems. From the data industry situation in 2013, the increment of emerging dem is considerable the development prospect is good. From January to December,

produced 1959000 tons of olefins, an increase of 86.1% year-on-year, the consumption of methanol was about 547.7. Other dems consumed 3.943 million tons of methanol, up 44.6% year on year. It is estimated that the new methanol dem of the two companies will be about 4.9 million tons in 2014, includingStard. Generally speaking,

, there are three or four feasible coping strategies for manufacturing enterprises, they have similarities. However, due to the stardization of futures contracts delivery processes, there is no risk of judicial disputes compared with super forward contracts. Therefore, using futures market to maintain value has a comparative advantage, enterprises can wait for the appropriate price adopt them appropriately.

from the above three aspects, the downward pressure of domestic economy in 2014 was large, which restricted the development of major industries, also affected the methanol industry to a large extent. Domestic methanol production capacity, output dem are increasing at the same time. The supply dem will be loose tight in different seasons. The price will not be unilateral, there will still be a better futures hedging price. In the first half of the year, production enterprises are still likely to face the pressure of loss. Without the traditional means of value preservation, they need to study the futures market continuously, gradually use futures to maintain the value, so as to transfer the risk of price falling to dilute the profit of the whole year. On the whole, the rapid development of methanol industry in the future still depends on the rapid growth of emerging dem. "


TRUNNANO (aka. Luoyang Tongrun Nano Technology Co. Ltd.) is a trusted global chemical material supplier & manufacturer with over 12 years' experience in providing super high-quality chemicals and Nanomaterials. The nitride powder produced by our company has high purity, fine particle size and impurity content. Please contact us if necessary. (aka. Luoyang Tongrun Nano Technology Co. Ltd.) is a trusted global chemical material supplier & manufacturer with over 12 years' experience in providing super high-quality chemicals Nanomaterials. The nitride powder produced by our company has high purity, fine particle size impurity content. Please contact us if necessary.
TRUNNANO (aka. Luoyang Tongrun Nano Technology Co. Ltd.) is a trusted global chemical material supplier & manufacturer with over 12 years' experience in providing super high-quality chemicals and Nanomaterials. The nitride powder produced by our company has high purity, fine particle size and impurity content. Please contact us if necessary.